Oscar Predictions ---

Following, what is perhaps, the most underwhelming list of nominations, lending to what will be -no doubt - a boring and predictable show, I will push on and make my much needed predictions (and long over due update to this blog).

Back in August I was sure that both Invictus and Nine would be forces to be reckoned with, however, both now lie dead in the water. For Invictus, the thought of Clint Eastwood directing Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela, was more exciting than the flat, and somewhat predictable, finished product we saw in theaters. The general consensus is - this movie missed its mark. Why Eastwood tried to draw the plight of South Africa's rugby team as a metaphor for his governments conflict with racial integration is beyond anyone. It's just bad poetry. That's the kind of thing they tell you not to write a college essay about. Especially working with such great source material, I think everyone agrees a Mandela Apartheid movie would have been far more stimulating. And even with the expanison of the Best Picture category to ten nominations, the Invictus snub shows the Academy agrees too. Don't expect Freeman or Damon to walk away with a trophy.

As for Nine, I don't even know where to begin - especially for another film with such great potential. Was it the wasted talent? The Chicago formula rehash? The overall lack of plot? Or, the way it offends a gem of Neo-realism? Also, does anyone know what Nicole Kidman was doing in this movie? I still have only questions... (And for some reason Penelope Cruz was nominated)

By this time everyone knows what's been going on with James Cameron's Avatar, therefore, it's Best Picture nod, and slew of technical noms, aren't a surprise. The only thing standing in its way is The Hurt Locker. Directed by Katherine Bigelow (Cameron's ex wife), the film is most likely to send Oscar home with the first female director, but whether it will capture picture is a little more foggy. Her film boasts extreme suspense, a great performance by a leading actor (Jeremy Renner), and masterful use of the docudrama cinematographic style. Avatar, on the other hand, besides the Effects, showcases Cameron's obsessive attention to detail, and wonderful sense of story. Like I said, it's foggy who will win, but at least we have one "coin toss" to look forward to on Oscar night.

As for the wins we have to look forward to: Bullock will win over Streep. Her Golden Globe win helped, but Blind Side's picture nomination clinched it. For a film not even talked about as Best Picture material, her performance must have carried it that much. Plus, Streep has won twice, and the Oscars are always a little political. You can try to argue with me - but Sandra Bullock will win an Oscar this year.

Christoph Waltz for Supporting Actor. Besides the fact this is the best movie of the year in my opinion, this is also my favorite performance of the year and most voters seem to be agreeing. He's been the clear front runner from the beggining and has the Golden Globe to prove it.

Jeff Bridges for Actor. This one was decided a long time ago, there's no use debating.

Mo'Nique for Supporting Actress. (Same as above. It's pretty much done) BUT, seeing Gyllenhall nominated for Crazy Heart has me thinking...it's a little like the Sandra Bullock situation. For a dark horse nomination like this to occur, the Academy must really be itching to give her an award. We shall see.

And just to wrap things up, Inglorious Basterds got it's much deserved love with Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, and Screenplay nominations; A Serious Man (next Cohen Bros. masterpiece) squeaked into Best Picture, and Up became the second animated film to get the Best Picture nomination. Unless you care about the technical awards, I'm fairly confident the above will occur (and trust me, I'm happy to be proved wrong.) If not, just tune in to see who wins best picture.